By fessi12

EUR/USD

The European –American cross had a fresh start on this starting year, with a +4% performance. After ending 2012 in a not so great way, the EUR/USD got back on tracks by breaking its 1.3130 resistance on the 10th of January. It kept accelerating to reach areas around 1.36 by now.

However, a number of events could change that next month.

First of all, the US GDP growth in Q4 2012 went backwards at -0.1% instead of the expected +1%.

Then, a stronger euro will be unbearable in the long run for EU exports.

EUR/USD chart

 

 

In February, there’s a high probability for a bearish reversal after hitting the 1.36 resistance.

 

USD/JPY:

Just like the EUR/USD, the USD/JPY had a good rush at the beginning of this year with a +6% growth, supported by the BoJ which kept on buying money throughout January.

Today, the Japanese analysts believe that a price of 100 on the USD/JPY would be satisfying for the BoJ in order to restart a stalled economy since the 2011 earthquake. Japan reconnected with growth in 2012 thanks to the Yen devaluation and exports stimulus. However, it’s a shy growth, no more than 1%.

It would be interesting to see growth carrying on, next month.

As for technical analysis we note:

USD/JPY chart

The RSI is almost reaching the 90, which means the pair is overbought. USD/JPY is today in an important resistance level.

We advise to wait a bit before selling Yen.