The European –American cross had a fresh start on this starting year, with a +4% performance. After ending 2012 in a not so great way, the EUR/USD got back on tracks by breaking its 1.3130 resistance on the 10th of January. It kept accelerating to reach areas around 1.36 by now.
However, a number of events could change that next month.
First of all, the US GDP growth in Q4 2012 went backwards at -0.1% instead of the expected +1%.
Then, a stronger euro will be unbearable in the long run for EU exports.
In February, there’s a high probability for a bearish reversal after hitting the 1.36 resistance.
Just like the EUR/USD, the USD/JPY had a good rush at the beginning of this year with a +6% growth, supported by the BoJ which kept on buying money throughout January.
Today, the Japanese analysts believe that a price of 100 on the USD/JPY would be satisfying for the BoJ in order to restart a stalled economy since the 2011 earthquake. Japan reconnected with growth in 2012 thanks to the Yen devaluation and exports stimulus. However, it’s a shy growth, no more than 1%.
It would be interesting to see growth carrying on, next month.
As for technical analysis we note:
The RSI is almost reaching the 90, which means the pair is overbought. USD/JPY is today in an important resistance level.
We advise to wait a bit before selling Yen.